Give me another Brett in Royal Blue Reviewed by Momizat on . Per a Buster Olney tweet today The Blue Jays are taking a very aggressive approach in looking for a closer; wouldn't be a shock if they landed one of best guys Per a Buster Olney tweet today The Blue Jays are taking a very aggressive approach in looking for a closer; wouldn't be a shock if they landed one of best guys Rating:
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Give me another Brett in Royal Blue

Per a Buster Olney tweet today The Blue Jays are taking a very aggressive approach in looking for a closer; wouldn’t be a shock if they landed one of best guys.

Hmm one of the best guys?  Well it just so happens that Kansas City has one of the best guys on their current roster, well at least prior to last season he was one of the best guys.  Also it happens that the Blue Jays have a starting pitcher or two that may be interesting to the Royals.  One in particular is pretty intriguing to me despite not putting up eye popping stats two of the last three seasons.

Brett Cecil

Cecil enjoyed a terrific 2010 campaign winning 15 games for the Blue Jays making 28 starts and giving them 172.2 innings of 2.6 fWAR pitching including a 4.22 ERA which helped him live up to his billing as the 38th overall pick in the 2007 draft.  Cecil looked like a solid #3-4 for the Blue Jays heading into 2011 but a rough start lead to a quick demotion back to AAA where he found himself until July callup.  One of the reasons for Cecil’s struggles was that his HR per flyball number ballooned back to his 2009 range as over 14% of his flyballs allowed ended up in the cheap seats leading to a 4.73 ERA in his 20 starts and 123.2 innings.  While he never corrected the HR numbers he had a decent stretch from July to September 9th when he put together a 3.50 ERA despite giving up 13 bombs in those 90 innings until he cut his finger in a tragic blender/smoothy accident after which he got beaten to a pulp by the Angels and Rays in his final two starts of the season.

Cecil has 1.128 years of service time according to Cots.

Why the Jays could be interested in this deal?

Obviously besides the fact that the Jays would get Joakim Soria who has been one of the games top closers they don’t give up one of their better players or prospects.  Cecil while still young at 25 isn’t as coveted as Kyle Drabek or any of the other young Blue Jays prospects in their system.  His troubles keeping the ball in the park won’t be an easy fix if Rogers continues to play like the Coors Field of Canada.

Why the Royals should be interested in this deal?

I know what you are going to say.  No way I don’t want this guy he had one decent season and has been the same pitcher in two of his three seasons giving up the longball and not missing many bats.  That’s exactly why the Royals should be interested.  Cecil has been the same pitcher all three seasons living in the 6.3 K/9 range while averaging 3.09 BB/9 and leaving runners on at a 72% clip while falling victim to poor home run luck in ’09 and ’11.  The major league average home run per flyball percentage is in the neighborhood of 10.6% according to Fangraphs a number that Cecil has been over by 3 and 4% in his two down seasons but remember that Rogers Centre ranked as the 6th, 4th and 17th easiest park to hit a home run in those seasons while the park formerly known as the K ranked 29th, 19th and 27th in that time.  And that is before you get the benefit of pitching against the Twins, Indians, Tigers and White Sox as opposed to the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays and Orioles.  Warning:  There is one red flag with Brett Cecil going forward as his velocity dipped a couple mph which could be an injury concern.

Bottom Line

This isn’t a especially flashy move nor is it one I think GMDM would actually make because its probably bad PR to Facebook Royals fans but KC would be adding a decent left handed starter with plenty of control for a position that isn’t that valuable.  Soria is getting more expensive each and every year while Kansas City has an arm in Greg Holland that could step into the closing role while adding a young starter that can eat innings, allowing KC to let Chen walk in Free Agency and potentially freeing up enough money with Chen/Soria deals off the books to land a better SP via FA.  Not to mention if the friendlier division and park lead to Cecil success GMDM would have more opportunity to flip a top prospect like Montgomery, Odorizzi or Lamb for a potential midseason #1 if KC finds themselves in a race.  Like I said before though I doubt this move is one that KC is looking at currently.

About The Author

I grew up on the mean gravel roads of Iowa where I started my love for baseball from the age of 2. George Brett and the voice of Denny Matthews deepened my love even more for the Royals as my father and I spent summers listening to the team on our deck or in the car on our way to or from my little league and high school games. Sports was always the common bond that my father and I enjoyed and the Royals were in the center of that.I currently live in La Vista with my wife, two sons, two dogs and a pair of gross cats where we are grinding through until we can move somewhere warm when we retire. I own Casino Cab Company and Bluffs Affordable Auto Repair in Council Bluffs trying to build my 1% empire. If you are in the area you can find me at Omaha Storm Chasers games on most nights or just follow me on twitter @ClintScoles.

Number of Entries : 856

Comments (13)

  • Clint Scoles

    Thanks for all the comments guys it was great feedback. I understand many of your comments on this fictional trade option. As Drew discussed the option of freeing up money is a big scenario in this in my mind as well as getting back a 3/4 for a over inflated closer. Soria in my mind just doesn’t have that much value. Yes he has been one of the best closers prior to 2011 but we also know the shelf life of closers just isn’t that great and his ’11 could be a sign of things to come. Even if he returns to his old form a closer at best is a 1.5-2.5 fWAR value and Cecil could easily eclipse that himself. Are there other options in their system and other systems like McGuire, etc sure but I was one starting from what Olney put out there and looking for a pitcher who is ready now to help. KC may be able to get a prospect in this deal with Cecil or toss a midlevel prospect in with Soria to get more. Great feedback guys keep the discussion goin !

  • kcShogun

    OT – i’m thinking about moving my seats this year. i like the shade areas, as my current are between home plate and 3B. does anybody know if the sun hits the 1B side….say Row L 135 section. is that area still shaded?

    thanks,

  • Drew Osborne

    Cecil is interesting to me. If we did say make a Soria for Cecil and Asher or something like that, it also frees up $7M that we could use to go out and get another pitcher. Think of it this way, you always recruit guys that are better than what you have now. If we brought Cecil in he’d be behind Sanchez? Hochevar? Chen resigned? Duffy? Mazzaro? Francis resigned? Paulino? Adcock? Laffey? Teaford? Mendoza? SOS? I think he’s one of your top 3. Suddenly, we now have more of a rotation that can win us games. Suddenly, we have other options in the pen now closing. And we’ve got a few guys on the way in Montgomery, Lamb, Odorizzi, Dwyer, Arguelles…. in the pen we can add a Keating, or Chapman, or Herrera, or Sisk… We have plenty of options suddenly. But the MLB rotation is the weakest link on our team. Deal the money in Soria from a strong point and fill a need for a weaker point. I like it.

  • Greg Schaum

    First off- I loved Clints article but I am not interested in Cecil as much as he is….this is not because I am scared of to many lefties but more because I think there are other pitchers available that could get the return from KC that Clint mentions

  • Buster09

    instead of a guy like brett cecil, why not go after a guy with more upside, but maybe a year away. See if Soria and a mid level prospect can bring back a Dec rhp McGuire and a prospect.

    I’m seeing McGuire and either lhp Noah Syndergaard or lhp griffin murphy. while mcguire is at most a year away, both the other prospects are barely into their professional careers. however, both appear to have the potential, down the road, to be starting pitchers at the major league level.

    just spitballing

  • PREGNANT ROLLERSKATE

    We only have 5 spots in the rotation & we don’t need any more avg to slighty below avg pitchers…chen won’t cost u Soria

  • ARWINK

    I am not that interested in Cecil at all. I think that would be bad deal for us. I hate to say to many lefties, but that would be my 2nd reason for not being that interested in him. If the Jays really did come for a talk. I would tell them Brandon Morrow or a combination two of Drew Hutchison/ Justin Nicolino/Aaron Sanchez.

  • Greg Schaum

    I think one if I had to pick….FA is a empty lot this season….maybe a Edwin Jackson but don’t see it

  • kcShogun

    ….forgot to add this. “Jack Soria for Brett Cecil???” seriously? no way i would like that. liked the effort and detail you put into the article. who are other options in their system that we could look at? is that what you’re saying….maybe a blue jay pitcher, but not cecil?

    (sorry for trying to read between every line, etc – watched Meltzer’s Decoded – always over thinking things)

  • kcShogun

    i like your article. very nice work.

    greg/clint-
    give me your prediction……
    1) royals make a trade similar to this article
    2) royals make a blockbuster trade for an Ace. Myers and Odorizzi are gone
    3) no significant trade, but a big FA signing is made. $12-15 per year for 5yrs type deal. edwin jackson, oswalt, etc.

    not sure if i see the royals making a trade for an Ace at this point. they have a ton of money to spend. go spend it in FA to get a #1-3. see how the season plays out, then make a decision on a trade for an Ace.

    thoughts on this?

  • @RealAndyMo

    Cecil is so inconsistent and he really doesnt even have that good stuff.He has mechanical issues but I think he has mental issues he needs to work on to. I think Soria will bounce back, I might trade him if the trade was right but I think you would be selling low on him after a down year

  • Clint Scoles

    Sorry no beans just me spitballing

  • kcShogun

    whats going on here? are we targeting another LHP??? spill da beano!

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