About the author

David Lesky

I never had a chance. I was born into a family who loved baseball and the Royals, so I accordingly love baseball and the Royals. I just so happen to love to write also, which makes writing about the Royals for this site something that makes me happy each and every day. When I first started blogging, a fairly well known baseball writer told me to only do it until I'm unhappy doing it, but I don't see that coming any time soon.

Related Articles

7 Comments

  1. 7

    mmeade17

    I think a Gordon-Dyson-Cain outfield could be pretty formidable. If Gordon does what he can do and Cain can put up somewhere in the neighborhood of .280/.330/.430, which is very possible, then this outfield will work. Dyson is worth so much running the bases and fielding that he doesn’t need to be a Silver Slugger. He had nearly a .330 OBP last year in 330 PA and was worth 1.6 WAR. Double it to extrapolate to a full season, and he’s worth 3.2 WAR. That’s rough math, but it’s also possible. If Dyson can put up something like .265/.330/.340, steal 65 bases and play incredible defense, he will be 1) much better than Francoeur 2) a capable everyday center fielder.

  2. 6

    DownUnderFan

    One final stat for you…

    Hochevar had by far the worst ERA in day games at 9.64 in 11 starts. Makes you wonder why Yost kept sending him out (basically 1/3 of his starts were in daylight) when he struggled to get anyone out. However, there is more to this story.

    Royals might want to think about moving as many games as possible to night this year to help Hochevar and the team as they were 16-35 in day games (3rd worst in ML baseball).

    Can’t blame the hitting as the Royals averaged 4.19 runs per game and 264 average at night while going 4.13 runs per game and 265 average in the daytime.

    However, team ERA in day games was 5.15 versus 3.90 in night games. Good reason for going 16-35. You have to ask how there can be that much difference under the sun versus under the lights.

  3. 5

    DownUnderFan

    More fun for you. Who had the highest 1st inning ERA. No not Hochevar. Technically it was Verdugo, but that was just one start. Next came Sanchez (surprised?) at 11.25 ERA. Then Teaford at 10.80 over 5 starts. Next, Luke at 7.59. Chen and Smith were also over 6 in the opening inning.

    Luke’s ERA by inning…1st = 7.59, 2nd = 4.83, 3rd = 5.64, 4th = 3.41, 5th = 6.58, 6th = 6.01, 7th = 6.94, 8th = 6.23. Luke’s only innings below 5 ERA were the 2nd and 4th. It really went downhill from the 5th on.

    Mendoza and Guthrie were the only regular starters with ERA’s under 4 in the first.

    Luke didn’t make it to the 4th on 3 occasions, the 5th = 6 times and the 6th = 12 starts of 32 total. He only made it through 7 innings on 11 starts or 1/3 of the time.

    In comparison, Chen made it to the 6th on 22 of 34 starts while Luke made it on 20 of 32 starts. In other words, Luke was no better than Chen even though Chen is not considered a strong pitcher past 5 innings.

    Bottom line, Luke has big problems starting the game and then again from the 5th on (3rd time through the order). Puts the 21 good starts listed in Kaegel’s story on MLB in a whole new perspective doesn’t it?

    ADDENDUM: The best 1st inning starter was Adcock who gave up no runs in 2 starts, the only one to do so. But his ERA as a starter was 6.14 so he fell later indicating he should stay in the bullpen with shorter stints. Amazingly, Adcock had a 1.32 ERA in relief and yet will no doubt start 2013 in AAA.

    Paulino and Duffy were next best after Adcock with 1 run in 6 and 5 starts respectively. Mendoza is best of the regulars with a 3.51 ERA in 25 starts.

  4. 4

    DownUnderFan

    An interesting stat for you… Do you know what the Royals ERA was in the first inning of games in 2012.

    6.06 ERA. Only Boston and Minnesota were worse.

    The second highest was the 5th inning at 5.00, a full run less.

    That says a whole lot about the season when Royals hitters were constantly behind the 8 ball before they even batted around the first time.

    Think Eiland and Henry might want to focus on how to get out of the first inning without getting shelled in 2013 preparations.

  5. 3

    DownUnderFan

    By the way, on the trip, I am very envious. Got to spend a week there last year and loved every minute of it. Actually found a room at the Holiday Inn Express so could spend all day every day at the fields. Have a great time. And say hello to Joel, Steve and Monty for me if you see them. Think they will remember ol’ DownUnder.

  6. 2

    DownUnderFan

    Interesting thoughts, David. A few comments for you.

    Juan Gutierrez is already on the 40 man roster with no options. He will get every chance to make opening day. And should if he pitches like he did this winter.

    Tejada is penciled in as the utility infielder, including backing Moose. Its his position to lose and the only way he misses out is if he cannot hit his weight in spring training. Think he will get every chance and play a lot more innings than Irving or Tony.

    Francoeur will be the starting RF at least through April. He is in a no win situation though. If he fails, he gets released by June. If he succeeds, look for the Royals to dump him and his salary to another team by the all star break. By the way, how many times does Bob Dutton tweet it is the Royals decision – not his, before he blows up his IPhone?

    Finally, there is Luke, signed today at $4.56M. It is pretty much a fact that the 5th spot is Luke’s to lose. Yes, it should be Mendoza’s and he will probably inherit it about May, at least until Paulino or Duffy show up. But out of the box in April, it will be Luke. Moore and Yost have committed to him and like Francoeur, are unchangeable for whatever reasons.

    Kaegel made an interesting comparison in his article today. Luke had a 13.88 ERA in 11 starts with 5 or more runs and a 2.88 ERA in the other 21 starts where he allowed 4 or less runs. This indicates he was good 2/3 of the time. The problem is he was 1-10 in the 11 starts and 7-6 in the other 21.

    Change the stat to more or less than 4 runs (league standard) and it is very different. He had 15 starts of 4 or more runs and was 1-13 in those starts while going 7-3 in the 17 starts where he allowed 3 or less runs. That indicates that just under half his starts were below to well below average. Further, in 7 starts he allowed 7 or more runs. Even if he allowed just 5 runs in those starts (effectively lowering his ERA to 4.90 in the process), it would not have changed his record.

    Bottom line, the ERA is irrelevant. Until Luke or Ned can control his penchant for allowing more than 3 runs per start, Luke will struggle to win games even as a #5 starter. I include Ned because there is no way starters should be staying in once they gave up more than 4 runs. This happened to Luke no less than 11 times last season.

    I am one who hopes Luke finds solace in the back end of the rotation. I also hope if he struggle early, the Royals at least give him a couple of shots out of the bullpen before dumping him. But the reality is there is no place to hide now and if Luke wants to keep pitching in KC, he must produce. Or find himself hunting for a job like his predecessors Sanchez and Davies.

  7. 1

    cpass

    I read somewhere (can’t for the life of me find it now) that Perez is expected to primarily DH during the WBC, so that should help alleviate injury worries.

    Irving Falu can fill in at 3B too, can’t he?

Leave a Reply

2014 Powered By Wordpress, Goodnews Theme By Momizat Team