How close are the Royals to the Tigers?
General manager Dayton Moore is on the verge of a trade that could change the fate of the organization for at least the next seven years. Â If you are reading the tea leaves he has received a message from ownership to either win this year or face the possibility of losing his job. Â With that possible fate Dayton Moore is doing what most people would in similar situation, he’s trying to make a drastic move that will help him in the short-term. Â Unfortunately he’s not looking at reality in the short-term either.
If his only goal is to get over .500 then yes adding Jon Lester or James Shields should get the Royals close to achieving that goal. Â If his job is to win a division or compete for a playoff spot then I think he’ll still be quite far away from the 2012 division winning Detroit Tigers. Â Just compare.
#1 Justin Verlander Last 3 yrs rWAR (6.67)
#2 Max Scherzer (2.7)
#3 Doug Fister (2.7)
#4 Drew Smyly(1.5 WAR only 2013)
#5 Rick Porcello (0.4)
If the Tigers add no one their rotation appears to be a 14 brWAR rotation just based on the last three seasons.
In comparison the Royals rotation would look something like this.
James Shields (1.7) or Jon Lester (3.1)
Ervin Santana (1.2)
Jeremy Guthrie (2.3)
Bruce Chen (1.4)
Luis Mendoza (1.3 2012)
Depending on which starter the Royals sign they look to be anywhere from a 8-10 brWAR rotation. Â That number is giving plenty of benefits to Lester, Chen and Santana for their ’10-11 seasons while also giving Mendoza credit for what looked like a change last season. Â This rotation could very well be a 5 WAR rotation if things go badly.
If you don’t like WAR I’m sure old school numbers will show a similar disparity.
Just on paper (yes former players and coaches I know you “play the game on the field”) the Tigers rotation is significantly better.
The Royals make up some of that gap in the bullpen and on defense but the Tigers with the additions of Torii Hunter and Victor Martinez easily out gain them in the hitting department. Â The Royals could get close if everything went perfect with a couple MVP seasons out of Sal Perez, Eric Hosmer or Mike Moustakas while Franceour returns to past solid seasons along with Butler and Gordon hitting like they have the past couple of seasons. Â That is quite a bit to ask for from young and inconsistent talent.
The Royals should be more concerned about just getting better in 2013, answering questions of what they have in Moose, Hos, Myers, Cain and trying to find out if they can get to .500 with the current roster. Â If they are 100% committed to acquiring a starter then I’ll give a list tomorrow of pitchers they should be interested in that wouldn’t cost them a possible right-field star.
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